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Has Crofton Real Estate Bottomed Out Yet?

21114 PIE CHARTLooking at a five-year chart of real estate statistics in Crofton Maryland for October, the number of new contracts and sold/settled properties suggests that the real estate market may have bottomed out in 2008, although the number of sold properties is still a relatively small percentage of homes on the market for sale (20%).

While the tide seems to have turned in the volume of sales, it hasn’t in pricing.  Both the average and median sold prices of Crofton homes are down since last year – probably reflecting the surge of first-time buyers motivated by the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers.  These buyers naturally tend to purchase homes at the low end of the price range for the area.21114 market update

The percentage of selling price to list price for Crofton homes has dropped below 95% for the first time in five years.  At the same time, the average days on market has topped 80.  Both of these figures seem to contradict the original premise, based on sales volume, that the Crofton market has bottomed out. 

Aside from all these mixed signals, as to whether the Crofton real estate market has bottomed out, there is one particularly encouraging set of numbers: 

New listings: 37
New non-contingent contracts: 25
New contingent contracts: 21

Since the market is largely driven by supply and demand, this is exactly what I’m looking for – the number of new contracts exceeding the number of new listings.  Let’s watch this for the next few months.  If this continues, I think we could consider it a turn-around for the Crofton real estate market, regardless of any other statistics.

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